Towards the sequential assimilation of SAR-derived water stages into hydraulic models using the Particle Filter : proof of concept

With the onset of new satellite radar constellations (e.g. Sentinel-1) and advances in computational science (e.g. grid computing) enabling the supply and processing of multimission satellite data at a temporal frequency that is compatible with real-time flood forecasting requirements, this study presents a new concept for the sequential assimilation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived water stages into coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models. The proposed methodology consists of adjusting storages and fluxes simulated by a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model using a Particle Filterbased data assimilation scheme. Synthetic observations of water levels, representing satellite measurements, are assimilated into the coupled model in order to investigate the performance of the proposed assimilation scheme as a function of both accuracy and frequency of water level observations. The use of the Particle Filter provides flexibility regarding the form of the probability densities of both model simulations and remote sensing observations. We illustrate the potential of the proposed methodology using a twin experiment over a widely studied river reach located in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The study demonstrates that the Particle Filter algorithm leads to significant uncertainty reduction of water level and discharge at the time step of assimilation. However, updating the storages of the model only improves the model forecast over a very short time horizon. A more effective way of updating thus consists in adjusting both states and inputs. The proposed methodology, which consists in updating the biased forcing of the hydraulic model using information on model errors that is inferred from satellite observations, enables persistent model improvement. The present schedule of satellite radar missions is such that it is likely that there will be continuity for SAR-based operational water management services. This research contributes to evolve reactive flood management into systematic or quasi-systematic SAR-based flood monitoring services

Assimilating SAR-derived water level data into a hydraulic model: a case study

Satellite-based active microwave sensors not only provide synoptic overviews of flooded areas, but also offer an effective way to estimate spatially distributed river water levels. If rapidly produced and processed, these data can be used for updating hydraulic models in near real-time. The usefulness of such approaches with real event data sets provided by currently existing sensors has yet to be demonstrated. In this case study, a Particle Filter-based assimilation scheme is used to integrate ERS-2 SAR and ENVISAT ASAR-derived water level data into a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model of the Alzette River. Two variants of the Particle Filter assimilation scheme are proposed with a global and local particle weighting procedure. The first option finds the best water stage line across all cross sections, while the second option finds the best solution at individual cross sections. The variant that is to be preferred depends on the level of confidence that is attributed to the observations or to the model. The results show that the Particle Filter-based assimilation of remote sensing-derived water elevation data provides a significant reduction in the uncertainty at the analysis step. Moreover, it is shown that the periodical updating of hydraulic models through the proposed assimilation scheme leads to an improvement of model predictions over several time steps. However, the performance of the assimilation depends on the skill of the hydraulic model and the quality of the observation data

Effects of tidal-forcing variations on tidal properties along a narrow convergent estuary

A 1D analytical framework is implemented in a narrow convergent estuary that is 78 km in length (the Guadiana, Southern Iberia) to evaluate the tidal dynamics along the channel, including the effects of neap-spring amplitude variations at the mouth. The close match between the observations (damping from the mouth to ∼ 30 km, shoaling upstream) and outputs from semi-closed channel solutions indicates that the M2 tide is reflected at the estuary head. The model is used to determine the contribution of reflection to the dynamics of the propagating wave. This contribution is mainly confined to the upper one third of the estuary. The relatively constant mean wave height along the channel (< 10% variations) partly results from reflection effects that also modify significantly the wave celerity and the phase difference between tidal velocity and elevation (contradicting the definition of an “ideal” estuary). Furthermore, from the mouth to ∼ 50 km, the variable friction experienced by the incident wave at neap and spring tides produces wave shoaling and damping, respectively. As a result, the wave celerity is largest at neap tide along this lower reach, although the mean water level is highest in spring. Overall, the presented analytical framework is useful for describing the main tidal properties along estuaries considering various forcings (amplitude, period) at the estuary mouth and the proposed method could be applicable to other estuaries with small tidal amplitude to depth ratio and negligible river discharge.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Global Monthly Water Scarcity: Blue Water Footprints versus Blue Water Availability

Freshwater scarcity is a growing concern, placing considerable importance on the accuracy of indicators used to characterize and map water scarcity worldwide. We improve upon past efforts by using estimates of blue water footprints (consumptive use of ground- and surface water flows) rather than water withdrawals, accounting for the flows needed to sustain critical ecological functions and by considering monthly rather than annual values. We analyzed 405 river basins for the period 1996–2005. In 201 basins with 2.67 billion inhabitants there was severe water scarcity during at least one month of the year. The ecological and economic consequences of increasing degrees of water scarcity – as evidenced by the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo), Indus, and Murray-Darling River Basins – can include complete desiccation during dry seasons, decimation of aquatic biodiversity, and substantial economic disruption

A synthesis of past, current and future research for protection and management of papyrus (Cyperus papyrus L.) wetlands in Africa

Papyrus wetlands (dominated by the giant sedge Cyperus papyrus L.) occur throughout eastern, central and southern Africa and are important for biodiversity, for water quality and quantity regulation and for the livelihoods of millions of people. To draw attention to the importance of papyrus wetlands, a special session entitled ‘‘The ecology of livelihoods in papyrus wetlands’’ was organized at the 9th INTECOL Wetlands Conference in Orlando, Florida in June 2012. Papers from the session, combined with additional contributions, were collected in a special issue of Wetlands Ecology and Management. The current paper reviews ecological and hydrological characteristics of papyrus wetlands, summarizes their ecosystem services and sustainable use, provides an overview of papyrus research to date, and looks at policy development for papyrus wetlands. Based on this review, the paper provides a synthesis of research and policy priorities for papyrus wetlands and introduces the contributions in the special issue. Main conclusions are that (1) there is a need for better estimates of the area covered by papyrus wetlands. Limited evidence suggests that the loss of papyrus wetlands is rapid in some areas; (2) there is a need for a better understanding and modelling of the regulating services of papyrus wetlands to support trade-off analysis and improve economic valuation; (3) research on papyrus wetlands should include assessment of all ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, habitat, cultural) so that trade-offs can be determined as the basis for sustainable management strategies (‘wise use’); (4) more research on the governance, institutional and socio-economic aspects of papyrus wetlands is needed to assist African governments in dealing with the challenges of conserving wetlands in the face of growing food security needs and climate change. The papers in the special issue address a number of these issues

The Quadruple Squeeze: Defining the safe operating space for freshwater use to achieve a triply green revolution in the Anthropocene

Humanity has entered a new phase of sustainability challenges, the Anthropocene, in which human development has reached a scale where it affects vital planetary processes. Under the pressure from a quadruple squeeze—from population and development pressures, the anthropogenic climate crisis, the anthropogenic ecosystem crisis, and the risk of deleterious tipping points in the Earth system—the degrees of freedom for sustainable human exploitation of planet Earth are severely restrained. It is in this reality that a new green revolution in world food production needs to occur, to attain food security and human development over the coming decades. Global freshwater resources are, and will increasingly be, a fundamental limiting factor in feeding the world. Current water vulnerabilities in the regions in most need of large agricultural productivity improvements are projected to increase under the pressure from global environmental change. The sustainability challenge for world agriculture has to be set within the new global sustainability context. We present new proposed sustainability criteria for world agriculture, where world food production systems are transformed in order to allow humanity to stay within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries. In order to secure global resilience and thereby raise the chances of planet Earth to remain in the current desired state, conducive for human development on the long-term, these planetary boundaries need to be respected. This calls for a triply green revolution, which not only more than doubles food production in many regions of the world, but which also is environmentally sustainable, and invests in the untapped opportunities to use green water in rainfed agriculture as a key source of future productivity enhancement. To achieve such a global transformation of agriculture, there is a need for more innovative options for water interventions at the landscape scale, accounting for both green and blue water, as well as a new focus on cross-scale interactions, feed-backs and risks for unwanted regime shifts in the agro-ecological landscape